Donalds, 6+ pts
Implied probability 46%
24-hour volume$135
Total volume$7k
Liquidity$7k
Resolves3 Nov 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 46% |
| 26 Sept, 23:00 UTC | 46% |
| 26 Sept, 21:32 UTC | 45% |
| 25 Sept, 13:11 UTC | 50% |
| 25 Sept, 04:35 UTC | 49% |
| 24 Sept, 18:56 UTC | 45% |
| 24 Sept, 18:02 UTC | 49% |
| 24 Sept, 04:01 UTC | 40% |
| 23 Sept, 02:46 UTC | 41% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the Republican Party wins the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election by a margin of at least 6 percentage points. It resolves to No if the Republican candidate wins by less than 6 points or loses the election. Readers often mistake the linked news story about campaign website changes as the deciding factor, but only the final election results matter.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 46%
- No 54%