Yes
Implied probability 98%
24-hour volume$158k
Total volume$1.5M
Liquidity$1.5M
Resolves1 Feb 2027
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
Democrats must win at least 240 House seats and 54 Senate seats after the 2026 midterms for the market to resolve as Yes. If they fall short in either chamber, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake early polling data for final results, but only the official seat count after the election counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 98%
- No 2%