Above 6000
Implied probability 77%−6
24-hour volume$498
Total volume$293k
Liquidity$293k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 77% |
| 26 Oct, 19:15 UTC | 77% |
| 26 Oct, 18:11 UTC | 75% |
| 26 Oct, 17:21 UTC | 74% |
| 26 Oct, 15:39 UTC | 80% |
| 26 Oct, 01:02 UTC | 83% |
| 25 Oct, 21:43 UTC | 80% |
| 25 Oct, 21:29 UTC | 85% |
| 22 Oct, 20:55 UTC | 84% |
| 22 Oct, 00:10 UTC | 86% |
| 21 Oct, 22:53 UTC | 84% |
| 21 Oct, 19:10 UTC | 85% |
| 21 Oct, 14:13 UTC | 86% |
| 20 Oct, 20:02 UTC | 83% |
| 20 Oct, 18:24 UTC | 79% |
| 20 Oct, 12:25 UTC | 80% |
| 20 Oct, 11:55 UTC | 87% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the total number of measles cases in 2026 exceeds 6000. It resolves to No if that total is 6000 or fewer. Readers often mistake the current case count for the final annual total, but only the full year's data counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 77%
- No 23%