At least 10
Implied probability 5%−5
24-hour volume$83
Total volume$6k
Liquidity$6k
Resolves3 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 5% |
| 2 Nov, 19:47 UTC | 5% |
| 2 Nov, 05:31 UTC | 10% |
| 31 Oct, 01:11 UTC | 8% |
| 30 Oct, 12:06 UTC | 10% |
| 30 Oct, 07:02 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 17:46 UTC | 37% |
| 28 Oct, 21:57 UTC | 5% |
| 28 Oct, 15:19 UTC | 40% |
| 28 Oct, 11:17 UTC | 9% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the International Monetary Fund's PortWatch reports a daily transit count of at least 10 ships through the Strait of Hormuz during October 2026. It resolves to No if that specific IMF data never reaches ten in any single day of that month. Readers often mistake the linked news story about a sinking ship for the official source of truth, but only the IMF PortWatch figures count.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 5%
- No 95%