Gemini
Implied probability 74%+3
24-hour volume$1k
Total volume$42k
Liquidity$42k
Resolves31 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 74% |
| 10 Oct, 17:08 UTC | 74% |
| 10 Oct, 16:08 UTC | 72% |
| 10 Oct, 07:57 UTC | 73% |
| 10 Oct, 05:40 UTC | 73% |
| 10 Oct, 04:00 UTC | 72% |
| 10 Oct, 00:39 UTC | 73% |
| 9 Oct, 23:38 UTC | 71% |
| 9 Oct, 23:25 UTC | 72% |
| 9 Oct, 20:55 UTC | 71% |
| 9 Oct, 18:42 UTC | 72% |
| 9 Oct, 13:44 UTC | 71% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Google holds the top rank for large language models on October 31, 2026. It resolves to No if Google does not hold that specific ranking on that date. Readers often mistake the announcement of a new model for the final ranking determination.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 74%
- No 26%