Claude
Implied probability 15%−2
24-hour volume$2k
Total volume$10k
Liquidity$10k
Resolves12 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 15% |
| 8 Oct, 04:37 UTC | 15% |
| 8 Oct, 04:15 UTC | 20% |
| 8 Oct, 03:55 UTC | 19% |
| 8 Oct, 03:08 UTC | 18% |
| 8 Oct, 02:40 UTC | 16% |
| 8 Oct, 01:22 UTC | 14% |
| 8 Oct, 00:47 UTC | 11% |
| 7 Oct, 23:46 UTC | 14% |
| 7 Oct, 21:37 UTC | 11% |
| 7 Oct, 21:18 UTC | 14% |
| 7 Oct, 20:36 UTC | 13% |
| 7 Oct, 20:22 UTC | 14% |
| 7 Oct, 19:56 UTC | 9% |
| 7 Oct, 17:30 UTC | 12% |
| 7 Oct, 16:35 UTC | 10% |
| 7 Oct, 16:08 UTC | 14% |
| 7 Oct, 15:24 UTC | 9% |
| 7 Oct, 13:33 UTC | 13% |
| 7 Oct, 13:05 UTC | 14% |
| 7 Oct, 11:42 UTC | 13% |
| 7 Oct, 08:40 UTC | 16% |
| 6 Oct, 07:31 UTC | 34% |
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Anthropic's large language model ranks as the number one model in the world on October 12, 2026. It resolves to No if Anthropic does not hold this top rank on that specific date. Readers often mistake the linked news story about Claude Code for the resolution criteria, but only the global LLM ranking matters.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 15%
- No 85%