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Real Madrid

Resolved: Yes 12d ago

The market favoured No at 73% a day out, but Yes won. How often it's right

Final probability 99%
24-hour volume$24.8M
Total volume$28.6M
Liquidity$28.6M
Resolved27 Oct 2026
How the odds moved · Real Madrid
0%50%100%99%18 Oct, 22:56 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now99%
25 Oct, 22:13 UTC97%
25 Oct, 21:57 UTC33%
25 Oct, 21:29 UTC47%
25 Oct, 20:56 UTC31%
25 Oct, 20:26 UTC24%
25 Oct, 17:03 UTC25%
25 Oct, 16:56 UTC24%
25 Oct, 15:17 UTC25%
25 Oct, 13:03 UTC25%
25 Oct, 12:56 UTC24%
25 Oct, 10:49 UTC26%
25 Oct, 10:28 UTC26%
25 Oct, 09:58 UTC26%
25 Oct, 07:32 UTC27%
25 Oct, 07:25 UTC26%
25 Oct, 04:36 UTC27%
24 Oct, 22:51 UTC26%
24 Oct, 21:51 UTC27%
24 Oct, 21:12 UTC27%
24 Oct, 18:29 UTC27%
24 Oct, 15:48 UTC27%
24 Oct, 14:40 UTC27%
24 Oct, 13:00 UTC26%
24 Oct, 12:40 UTC25%
24 Oct, 10:03 UTC26%
24 Oct, 09:57 UTC25%
24 Oct, 07:27 UTC27%
24 Oct, 03:42 UTC26%
24 Oct, 00:27 UTC27%
23 Oct, 22:28 UTC26%
23 Oct, 20:12 UTC26%
23 Oct, 18:56 UTC27%
23 Oct, 16:07 UTC26%
23 Oct, 15:20 UTC26%
23 Oct, 14:01 UTC27%
23 Oct, 12:50 UTC26%
23 Oct, 09:34 UTC27%
23 Oct, 09:27 UTC26%
23 Oct, 08:53 UTC27%
23 Oct, 08:21 UTC27%
23 Oct, 07:54 UTC26%
23 Oct, 06:46 UTC26%
23 Oct, 05:39 UTC27%
23 Oct, 05:04 UTC26%
23 Oct, 04:57 UTC27%
23 Oct, 02:33 UTC27%
23 Oct, 01:18 UTC28%
22 Oct, 21:30 UTC27%
22 Oct, 21:16 UTC27%
22 Oct, 20:55 UTC27%
22 Oct, 20:20 UTC27%
22 Oct, 19:52 UTC26%
22 Oct, 18:49 UTC27%
22 Oct, 18:20 UTC26%
22 Oct, 17:09 UTC27%
22 Oct, 16:54 UTC26%
22 Oct, 16:26 UTC27%
22 Oct, 15:57 UTC27%
22 Oct, 15:28 UTC27%
22 Oct, 14:54 UTC26%
22 Oct, 14:17 UTC27%
22 Oct, 13:56 UTC26%
22 Oct, 13:27 UTC26%
22 Oct, 12:43 UTC26%
22 Oct, 12:29 UTC26%
22 Oct, 11:00 UTC26%
22 Oct, 10:53 UTC26%
22 Oct, 10:09 UTC25%
22 Oct, 09:11 UTC27%
22 Oct, 06:08 UTC28%
22 Oct, 05:53 UTC28%
22 Oct, 05:25 UTC29%
22 Oct, 04:55 UTC27%
22 Oct, 03:45 UTC27%
22 Oct, 03:09 UTC28%
22 Oct, 02:54 UTC28%
22 Oct, 02:05 UTC28%
22 Oct, 01:58 UTC27%
22 Oct, 00:52 UTC28%
22 Oct, 00:24 UTC29%
21 Oct, 23:42 UTC27%
21 Oct, 23:14 UTC28%
21 Oct, 22:17 UTC28%
21 Oct, 21:48 UTC27%
21 Oct, 21:04 UTC27%
21 Oct, 20:20 UTC26%
21 Oct, 19:39 UTC25%
21 Oct, 19:17 UTC25%
21 Oct, 18:34 UTC25%
21 Oct, 18:27 UTC24%
21 Oct, 15:31 UTC25%
21 Oct, 15:25 UTC23%
21 Oct, 14:23 UTC25%
21 Oct, 13:40 UTC24%
21 Oct, 13:26 UTC25%
21 Oct, 11:45 UTC25%
21 Oct, 09:40 UTC25%
21 Oct, 09:26 UTC26%
21 Oct, 08:44 UTC26%
21 Oct, 08:24 UTC26%
21 Oct, 07:43 UTC26%
21 Oct, 07:29 UTC25%
21 Oct, 06:37 UTC26%
21 Oct, 06:23 UTC24%
21 Oct, 04:59 UTC25%
21 Oct, 04:26 UTC26%
21 Oct, 02:34 UTC26%
21 Oct, 02:27 UTC24%
21 Oct, 01:45 UTC27%
21 Oct, 01:24 UTC25%
21 Oct, 00:56 UTC26%
21 Oct, 00:22 UTC27%
20 Oct, 23:57 UTC27%
20 Oct, 22:59 UTC26%
20 Oct, 22:24 UTC27%
20 Oct, 21:41 UTC26%
20 Oct, 21:27 UTC26%
20 Oct, 20:58 UTC23%
20 Oct, 20:10 UTC25%
20 Oct, 19:55 UTC24%
20 Oct, 19:14 UTC25%
20 Oct, 18:59 UTC25%
20 Oct, 17:46 UTC24%
20 Oct, 17:24 UTC25%
20 Oct, 16:41 UTC24%
20 Oct, 16:27 UTC25%
20 Oct, 15:58 UTC24%
20 Oct, 15:23 UTC23%
20 Oct, 14:47 UTC25%
20 Oct, 13:37 UTC24%
20 Oct, 13:29 UTC23%
20 Oct, 11:19 UTC23%
20 Oct, 06:13 UTC24%
20 Oct, 05:47 UTC24%
19 Oct, 03:30 UTC25%
19 Oct, 01:13 UTC23%
19 Oct, 00:37 UTC23%
19 Oct, 00:18 UTC23%
18 Oct, 23:03 UTC22%
18 Oct, 22:56 UTC21%

What counts

Real Madrid must win the La Liga match against Barcelona within the standard 90 minutes of play, including any added stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shootouts do not count toward the result. Readers often mistake the final score after extra time as the deciding factor.

Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 99%
  • No 1%

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