a full approval or an accelerated approval
Implied probability 47%−8
24-hour volume$41
Total volume$9k
Liquidity$9k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 47% |
| 7 Oct, 09:48 UTC | 47% |
| 6 Oct, 00:41 UTC | 55% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the FDA grants either a full or accelerated approval for Ivonescimab by Summit Therapeutics in 2026. It resolves to No if the FDA denies approval, requests more data, or takes no action within that year. Readers often mistake the linked news story about AstraZeneca’s new R&D center as relevant, but only the FDA's specific decision on this drug matters.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 47%
- No 53%