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1

Implied probability 43%−8
24-hour volume$38
Total volume$3k
Liquidity$3k
Resolves28 Oct 2030

Why it moved: +7 points at 18:56 UTC, after Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: After Israel’s election: What’s next? — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.

How the odds moved · 1
0%50%100%43%1 Nov, 18:01 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now43%
2 Nov, 18:56 UTC43%
1 Nov, 18:01 UTC36%

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What counts

The market resolves to Yes if exactly one Israeli Knesset election takes place between the next scheduled vote and either the formation of a new government or October 27, 2030 at 11:59:59 PM ET. The outcome depends on the total count of elections held within this specific timeframe. Readers often mistake the deadline for a fixed date rather than an event-triggered cutoff based on government formation.

Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 43%
  • No 57%

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