Before Oct 1, 2026
Implied probability 8%−88
24-hour volume$12k
Total volume$43k
Liquidity$43k
Resolves1 Oct 2026
Why it moved: −50 points at 10:23 UTC, after News Feed: Smart ring start-up Ōura delays IPO — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 8% |
| 29 Sept, 17:33 UTC | 8% |
| 29 Sept, 16:39 UTC | 9% |
| 29 Sept, 16:15 UTC | 6% |
| 29 Sept, 15:59 UTC | 12% |
| 29 Sept, 15:24 UTC | 9% |
| 29 Sept, 14:53 UTC | 5% |
| 29 Sept, 14:15 UTC | 8% |
| 29 Sept, 13:51 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Sept, 11:28 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Sept, 10:59 UTC | 11% |
| 29 Sept, 10:23 UTC | 49% |
| 29 Sept, 05:53 UTC | 99% |
| 27 Sept, 18:58 UTC | 96% |
| 26 Sept, 19:56 UTC | 97% |
| 26 Sept, 18:34 UTC | 98% |
| 26 Sept, 15:48 UTC | 99% |
| 25 Sept, 22:40 UTC | 97% |
| 24 Sept, 18:44 UTC | 98% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Oura Health Oy confirms an initial public offering before October 1, 2026. It resolves to No if the company does not confirm an IPO by that date. Readers often mistake the news headline about oversubscription for a confirmation of the IPO itself.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 8%
- No 92%