Australia
The market favoured No at 90% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 1%
24-hour volume$643k
Total volume$649k
Liquidity$649k
Resolved1 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 29 Sept, 12:03 UTC | 1% |
| 29 Sept, 11:56 UTC | 10% |
| 29 Sept, 11:28 UTC | 16% |
| 29 Sept, 10:59 UTC | 28% |
| 29 Sept, 10:23 UTC | 9% |
| 29 Sept, 09:51 UTC | 11% |
| 29 Sept, 07:48 UTC | 12% |
| 29 Sept, 06:54 UTC | 11% |
| 29 Sept, 06:22 UTC | 11% |
| 29 Sept, 05:53 UTC | 10% |
| 28 Sept, 19:18 UTC | 11% |
| 28 Sept, 10:44 UTC | 10% |
| 28 Sept, 02:15 UTC | 9% |
| 27 Sept, 05:36 UTC | 10% |
| 27 Sept, 05:23 UTC | 8% |
| 27 Sept, 04:39 UTC | 9% |
| 27 Sept, 04:25 UTC | 9% |
| 27 Sept, 00:34 UTC | 10% |
| 26 Sept, 14:37 UTC | 9% |
| 25 Sept, 19:25 UTC | 11% |
| 25 Sept, 12:57 UTC | 9% |
| 24 Sept, 12:46 UTC | 0% |
What counts
Australia wins if it scores more goals than Brazil during the 90-minute match, including stoppage time. Extra time and penalty kicks do not count toward the result.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%