Category 4 or above
Implied probability 1%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$11k
Liquidity$11k
Resolves2 Dec 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 20 Oct, 06:02 UTC | 1% |
| 18 Oct, 01:23 UTC | 2% |
| 17 Oct, 20:05 UTC | 1% |
| 17 Oct, 19:51 UTC | 3% |
| 17 Oct, 11:47 UTC | 8% |
| 17 Oct, 05:29 UTC | 13% |
| 17 Oct, 03:03 UTC | 8% |
| 17 Oct, 01:30 UTC | 7% |
| 17 Oct, 00:38 UTC | 6% |
| 16 Oct, 23:16 UTC | 5% |
| 16 Oct, 22:16 UTC | 5% |
| 16 Oct, 21:42 UTC | 8% |
| 16 Oct, 20:48 UTC | 4% |
| 15 Oct, 23:15 UTC | 85% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Hurricane Trudy attains maximum sustained winds of at least 130 mph. It resolves to No if the storm does not reach this wind speed threshold. Readers often mistake the forecast intensity for the actual measured winds required for resolution.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%