Category 5 or above
The market favoured Yes at 99% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 99%
24-hour volume$3k
Total volume$17k
Liquidity$17k
Resolved2 Dec 2026
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Hurricane Polo attains maximum sustained winds of at least 157 mph. It resolves to No if it does not reach that wind speed threshold. Readers often mistake the current category for the resolution criteria, but only the specific wind speed matters.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%