Category 3 or above
The market favoured No at 62% a day out, but Yes won. How often it's right
Final probability 99%
24-hour volume$13k
Total volume$71k
Liquidity$71k
Resolved9 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 9 Oct, 12:31 UTC | 99% |
| 9 Oct, 12:24 UTC | 92% |
| 9 Oct, 11:36 UTC | 97% |
| 9 Oct, 11:29 UTC | 91% |
| 9 Oct, 10:40 UTC | 94% |
| 9 Oct, 09:55 UTC | 89% |
| 9 Oct, 09:20 UTC | 83% |
| 9 Oct, 08:55 UTC | 79% |
| 9 Oct, 08:22 UTC | 75% |
| 9 Oct, 07:49 UTC | 78% |
| 9 Oct, 07:09 UTC | 73% |
| 9 Oct, 06:38 UTC | 79% |
| 9 Oct, 06:11 UTC | 71% |
| 9 Oct, 05:58 UTC | 74% |
| 9 Oct, 05:20 UTC | 72% |
| 9 Oct, 04:40 UTC | 81% |
| 9 Oct, 03:40 UTC | 73% |
| 9 Oct, 03:27 UTC | 73% |
| 9 Oct, 02:55 UTC | 63% |
| 9 Oct, 02:14 UTC | 62% |
| 9 Oct, 01:29 UTC | 61% |
| 9 Oct, 00:55 UTC | 62% |
| 9 Oct, 00:16 UTC | 57% |
| 8 Oct, 23:56 UTC | 59% |
| 8 Oct, 23:17 UTC | 58% |
| 8 Oct, 22:42 UTC | 54% |
| 8 Oct, 22:10 UTC | 56% |
| 8 Oct, 21:48 UTC | 54% |
| 8 Oct, 21:20 UTC | 58% |
| 8 Oct, 20:54 UTC | 51% |
| 8 Oct, 20:27 UTC | 43% |
| 8 Oct, 19:58 UTC | 38% |
| 8 Oct, 19:24 UTC | 39% |
| 8 Oct, 18:46 UTC | 38% |
| 8 Oct, 17:34 UTC | 45% |
| 8 Oct, 16:22 UTC | 48% |
| 8 Oct, 15:04 UTC | 42% |
| 8 Oct, 13:43 UTC | 48% |
| 8 Oct, 12:31 UTC | 56% |
| 8 Oct, 09:59 UTC | 62% |
| 8 Oct, 07:32 UTC | 63% |
| 8 Oct, 06:18 UTC | 65% |
| 8 Oct, 05:03 UTC | 58% |
| 8 Oct, 03:48 UTC | 55% |
| 8 Oct, 03:01 UTC | 52% |
| 8 Oct, 02:54 UTC | 50% |
| 8 Oct, 02:09 UTC | 51% |
| 8 Oct, 01:55 UTC | 49% |
| 8 Oct, 01:29 UTC | 55% |
| 8 Oct, 00:47 UTC | 51% |
| 8 Oct, 00:27 UTC | 54% |
| 7 Oct, 20:43 UTC | 66% |
| 7 Oct, 20:22 UTC | 67% |
| 7 Oct, 19:42 UTC | 70% |
| 7 Oct, 19:27 UTC | 70% |
| 7 Oct, 18:47 UTC | 72% |
| 7 Oct, 18:20 UTC | 66% |
| 7 Oct, 17:52 UTC | 69% |
| 7 Oct, 17:16 UTC | 70% |
| 7 Oct, 16:55 UTC | 69% |
| 7 Oct, 15:55 UTC | 72% |
| 7 Oct, 15:24 UTC | 73% |
| 6 Oct, 15:10 UTC | 0% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Tropical Storm Isaias attains maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph. It resolves to No if it fails to reach that wind speed threshold. Readers often mistake the storm's category for the resolution criteria, but only the specific wind speed matters.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%