4
Implied probability 1%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$3k
Liquidity$3k
Resolves3 Nov 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 06:43 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Nov, 14:03 UTC | 8% |
| 2 Nov, 22:09 UTC | 11% |
| 31 Oct, 00:17 UTC | 15% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Democrats secure four seats in Florida during the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections. It resolves to No if they win fewer than four seats. Readers often mistake the linked story about a campaign donation for the actual election result.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%