2
The market favoured No at 60% a day out, but Yes won. How often it's right
Why it moved: +58 points at 06:07 UTC, after NPR Politics: Troy Jackson wins Maine Senate race over Susan Collins, in major coup for Democrats — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 98% |
| 4 Nov, 08:31 UTC | 98% |
| 4 Nov, 06:07 UTC | 96% |
| 3 Nov, 15:36 UTC | 38% |
| 3 Nov, 12:42 UTC | 41% |
| 3 Nov, 10:38 UTC | 42% |
| 3 Nov, 04:57 UTC | 40% |
| 2 Nov, 13:18 UTC | 42% |
| 2 Nov, 06:42 UTC | 43% |
| 2 Nov, 01:53 UTC | 45% |
| 30 Oct, 18:39 UTC | 41% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Republicans win exactly two Senate or gubernatorial races in the 19 states that Kamala Harris won in 2024 by the November 3, 2026 general election. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the deadline for Election Day itself rather than the specific November 3 date, or they ignore the requirement that the count must be exactly two.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 98%
- No 2%