NewsMarkets

Markets

Republican Party

Resolved: No 3d ago

The market favoured No at 91% a day out, and it won. How often it's right

Final probability 1%
24-hour volume$91k
Total volume$160k
Liquidity$160k
Resolved1 Jan 2027

Why it moved: +4 points at 17:03 UTC, after The Hill: District of Columbia live results: 2026 House delegate election — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.

How the odds moved · Republican Party
0%50%100%1%28 Oct, 20:44 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now1%
4 Nov, 08:17 UTC1%
4 Nov, 07:34 UTC1%
4 Nov, 06:57 UTC0%
4 Nov, 06:28 UTC1%
4 Nov, 05:53 UTC0%
4 Nov, 05:17 UTC0%
4 Nov, 04:40 UTC2%
4 Nov, 04:25 UTC3%
4 Nov, 03:55 UTC3%
4 Nov, 03:26 UTC6%
4 Nov, 02:56 UTC6%
4 Nov, 02:26 UTC7%
4 Nov, 01:57 UTC5%
4 Nov, 01:27 UTC8%
4 Nov, 00:58 UTC10%
4 Nov, 00:29 UTC11%
3 Nov, 23:46 UTC12%
3 Nov, 23:17 UTC14%
3 Nov, 22:56 UTC17%
3 Nov, 22:19 UTC16%
3 Nov, 21:57 UTC13%
3 Nov, 21:03 UTC11%
3 Nov, 20:56 UTC11%
3 Nov, 20:27 UTC11%
3 Nov, 19:35 UTC13%
3 Nov, 19:29 UTC12%
3 Nov, 18:37 UTC13%
3 Nov, 18:29 UTC12%
3 Nov, 17:58 UTC13%
3 Nov, 17:03 UTC12%
3 Nov, 16:55 UTC8%
3 Nov, 16:12 UTC11%
3 Nov, 15:43 UTC10%
3 Nov, 15:14 UTC11%
3 Nov, 14:53 UTC9%
3 Nov, 14:25 UTC10%
3 Nov, 12:42 UTC9%
3 Nov, 12:28 UTC8%
3 Nov, 11:13 UTC9%
3 Nov, 10:52 UTC9%
3 Nov, 09:34 UTC9%
3 Nov, 08:46 UTC9%
3 Nov, 06:44 UTC10%
3 Nov, 06:23 UTC10%
3 Nov, 05:54 UTC10%
3 Nov, 05:25 UTC10%
3 Nov, 04:57 UTC11%
3 Nov, 04:22 UTC12%
3 Nov, 03:47 UTC12%
3 Nov, 03:05 UTC10%
3 Nov, 02:23 UTC12%
3 Nov, 01:39 UTC11%
3 Nov, 01:24 UTC11%
3 Nov, 00:26 UTC12%
2 Nov, 23:51 UTC14%
2 Nov, 23:01 UTC13%
2 Nov, 22:31 UTC12%
2 Nov, 22:02 UTC14%
2 Nov, 21:55 UTC14%
2 Nov, 21:19 UTC11%
2 Nov, 20:51 UTC12%
2 Nov, 20:16 UTC12%
2 Nov, 19:54 UTC11%
2 Nov, 18:42 UTC12%
2 Nov, 18:11 UTC10%
2 Nov, 16:19 UTC14%
2 Nov, 15:34 UTC14%
2 Nov, 15:19 UTC13%
2 Nov, 03:21 UTC12%
2 Nov, 02:08 UTC14%
2 Nov, 01:10 UTC13%
2 Nov, 00:40 UTC14%
1 Nov, 22:39 UTC15%
1 Nov, 20:14 UTC14%
1 Nov, 19:30 UTC13%
1 Nov, 18:11 UTC12%
1 Nov, 17:49 UTC11%
1 Nov, 17:20 UTC13%
1 Nov, 16:29 UTC12%
1 Nov, 07:45 UTC13%
1 Nov, 06:57 UTC12%
1 Nov, 02:43 UTC13%
1 Nov, 02:29 UTC15%
1 Nov, 01:24 UTC13%
1 Nov, 00:56 UTC12%
31 Oct, 23:31 UTC13%
31 Oct, 23:11 UTC12%
31 Oct, 22:57 UTC11%
31 Oct, 21:31 UTC12%
31 Oct, 21:10 UTC11%
31 Oct, 20:28 UTC13%
31 Oct, 19:59 UTC14%
31 Oct, 18:34 UTC11%
31 Oct, 18:19 UTC13%
31 Oct, 17:49 UTC10%
31 Oct, 17:21 UTC10%
31 Oct, 16:36 UTC10%
31 Oct, 16:29 UTC10%
31 Oct, 14:31 UTC10%
31 Oct, 14:24 UTC10%
31 Oct, 13:23 UTC10%
31 Oct, 10:30 UTC10%
31 Oct, 07:18 UTC9%
31 Oct, 05:33 UTC9%
31 Oct, 04:50 UTC11%
31 Oct, 02:54 UTC10%
31 Oct, 01:39 UTC13%
31 Oct, 01:11 UTC12%
30 Oct, 22:00 UTC14%
30 Oct, 20:15 UTC14%
30 Oct, 19:53 UTC13%
30 Oct, 19:27 UTC15%
30 Oct, 18:51 UTC14%
30 Oct, 14:23 UTC16%
30 Oct, 02:34 UTC15%
30 Oct, 02:16 UTC16%
30 Oct, 01:35 UTC17%
30 Oct, 00:56 UTC14%
30 Oct, 00:28 UTC14%
29 Oct, 23:12 UTC15%
29 Oct, 20:38 UTC14%
29 Oct, 20:24 UTC14%
29 Oct, 16:35 UTC15%
29 Oct, 12:11 UTC17%
29 Oct, 06:37 UTC15%
29 Oct, 02:06 UTC16%
28 Oct, 21:30 UTC18%
28 Oct, 20:44 UTC17%

What counts

The market resolves to Yes if Republicans control more state governorships than Democrats after the 2026 midterm elections. It resolves to No if Democrats hold an equal or greater number of governorships. Readers often mistake this for a national popular vote count rather than a specific tally of state executive offices.

Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 1%
  • No 99%

View this market on Kalshi →

Embed this market

Paste this into any web page to show the live odds, with a link back here.

Stories on this market