Yes
Implied probability 7%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$4k
Liquidity$4k
Resolves3 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 7% |
| 16 Oct, 01:15 UTC | 7% |
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump signs an executive action imposing a tariff of at least 100% on imported generic pharmaceutical drugs before November 3, 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked news story about Medicare drug rules for the required tariff action.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 7%
- No 93%