Rob Sand, ≥14%
Implied probability 1%−2
24-hour volume$511
Total volume$10k
Liquidity$10k
Resolves3 Nov 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 20:30 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 19:04 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 18:35 UTC | 10% |
| 4 Nov, 05:39 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Nov, 05:02 UTC | 5% |
| 4 Nov, 04:25 UTC | 53% |
| 4 Nov, 03:18 UTC | 37% |
| 3 Nov, 02:00 UTC | 3% |
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The outcome is Yes if Rob Sand wins the 2026 Iowa governor race by a margin of 14% or more. The outcome is No if his winning margin falls below that threshold. Readers often mistake the projected win in the linked story for the final official result, but only the certified election margin determines the resolution.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%