Above 60
Implied probability 98%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$10k
Liquidity$10k
Resolves8 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 98% |
| 20 Oct, 15:05 UTC | 98% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the number of downloads for the Carbon Arc Gemini App in October 2026 exceeds 60. It resolves to No if that download count is 60 or lower. Readers often mistake the linked news story about Apple CarPlay as the source of truth, but only the specific app download data matters.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 98%
- No 2%