Taiwan
The market favoured No at 68% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 1%
24-hour volume$2k
Total volume$2k
Liquidity$2k
Resolved11 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 27 Sept, 15:38 UTC | 1% |
| 26 Sept, 14:52 UTC | 32% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if John Kennedy explicitly states that Taiwan is part of China during his appearance on Face the Nation originally scheduled for September 27, 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistakenly believe any general discussion of US-Taiwan relations counts, but only Kennedy's specific statement on that broadcast matters.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%