Texas only
The market favoured No at 99% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 1%
24-hour volume$12k
Total volume$15k
Liquidity$15k
Resolved3 Nov 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 06:57 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 06:07 UTC | 0% |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 03:18 UTC | 5% |
| 3 Nov, 23:24 UTC | 0% |
| 3 Nov, 21:11 UTC | 5% |
| 3 Nov, 20:49 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 16:40 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 02:01 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 00:05 UTC | 2% |
| 31 Oct, 19:59 UTC | 2% |
| 31 Oct, 03:08 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Oct, 17:56 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Oct, 21:57 UTC | 1% |
| 28 Oct, 19:26 UTC | 3% |
What counts
The outcome is Yes if Democrats win the Texas Class II Senate seat while simultaneously losing the Alaska Class II, Iowa Class II, and Ohio Class III seats for the term starting in 2027. The outcome is No if any of those other three races result in a Democratic victory. Readers often mistake the Ohio race deadline, which applies to the 2027 term, as the immediate election date.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%