Before Jan 1, 2027
Implied probability 30%+1
24-hour volume$48
Total volume$14k
Liquidity$14k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 30% |
| 1 Nov, 19:52 UTC | 30% |
| 30 Oct, 20:00 UTC | 29% |
| 29 Oct, 19:50 UTC | 30% |
| 29 Oct, 00:20 UTC | 31% |
| 27 Oct, 21:40 UTC | 37% |
| 26 Oct, 17:06 UTC | 23% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if a federal film or TV production tax credit becomes law between now and January 1, 2027. The outcome is No if no such law passes by that date. Readers often mistake the introduction of a bill for its enactment into law.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 30%
- No 70%