Before Nov 3, 2026
Implied probability 4%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$15k
Liquidity$15k
Resolves3 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 4% |
| 29 Sept, 15:54 UTC | 4% |
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the Democratic National Committee holds a convention before the midterm elections in 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked news story about Hispanic Heritage Month for the relevant event.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 4%
- No 96%