Before 2027
Why it moved: +7 points at 13:56 UTC, after Bloomberg Markets: US Treasuries Stumble as Strong Labor Market Lifts Fed-Hike Bets — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 77% |
| 7 Nov, 03:59 UTC | 77% |
| 7 Nov, 01:34 UTC | 78% |
| 7 Nov, 00:37 UTC | 81% |
| 7 Nov, 00:16 UTC | 78% |
| 6 Nov, 23:47 UTC | 80% |
| 6 Nov, 23:26 UTC | 78% |
| 6 Nov, 20:31 UTC | 76% |
| 6 Nov, 19:54 UTC | 79% |
| 6 Nov, 19:03 UTC | 78% |
| 6 Nov, 16:35 UTC | 76% |
| 6 Nov, 16:05 UTC | 75% |
| 6 Nov, 15:51 UTC | 76% |
| 6 Nov, 14:56 UTC | 77% |
| 6 Nov, 14:04 UTC | 76% |
| 6 Nov, 13:56 UTC | 75% |
| 6 Nov, 13:05 UTC | 68% |
| 6 Nov, 05:38 UTC | 67% |
| 6 Nov, 03:15 UTC | 64% |
| 6 Nov, 02:22 UTC | 66% |
| 5 Nov, 23:22 UTC | 69% |
| 5 Nov, 22:40 UTC | 65% |
| 5 Nov, 21:34 UTC | 70% |
| 5 Nov, 21:26 UTC | 68% |
| 5 Nov, 18:13 UTC | 67% |
| 5 Nov, 17:42 UTC | 65% |
| 5 Nov, 16:36 UTC | 67% |
| 5 Nov, 16:29 UTC | 67% |
| 5 Nov, 15:57 UTC | 76% |
| 5 Nov, 15:15 UTC | 79% |
| 5 Nov, 06:11 UTC | 80% |
| 4 Nov, 23:54 UTC | 79% |
| 4 Nov, 19:57 UTC | 78% |
| 4 Nov, 17:05 UTC | 79% |
| 4 Nov, 15:43 UTC | 81% |
| 4 Nov, 15:13 UTC | 80% |
| 4 Nov, 12:54 UTC | 79% |
| 4 Nov, 11:05 UTC | 76% |
| 4 Nov, 09:50 UTC | 75% |
| 4 Nov, 03:03 UTC | 74% |
| 4 Nov, 02:34 UTC | 76% |
| 3 Nov, 17:17 UTC | 74% |
| 3 Nov, 12:07 UTC | 71% |
| 3 Nov, 06:30 UTC | 73% |
| 3 Nov, 05:54 UTC | 71% |
| 2 Nov, 20:30 UTC | 75% |
| 2 Nov, 19:47 UTC | 73% |
| 2 Nov, 19:18 UTC | 70% |
| 2 Nov, 18:56 UTC | 72% |
| 2 Nov, 16:19 UTC | 71% |
| 2 Nov, 11:57 UTC | 73% |
| 2 Nov, 10:36 UTC | 72% |
| 2 Nov, 05:09 UTC | 70% |
| 2 Nov, 02:37 UTC | 71% |
| 2 Nov, 00:48 UTC | 69% |
| 1 Nov, 23:50 UTC | 71% |
| 1 Nov, 23:29 UTC | 73% |
| 1 Nov, 22:17 UTC | 71% |
| 1 Nov, 21:41 UTC | 73% |
| 1 Nov, 17:49 UTC | 73% |
| 1 Nov, 15:46 UTC | 72% |
| 1 Nov, 03:04 UTC | 74% |
| 1 Nov, 00:28 UTC | 73% |
| 31 Oct, 23:31 UTC | 75% |
| 31 Oct, 16:36 UTC | 74% |
| 31 Oct, 14:38 UTC | 74% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The outcome is Yes if the Federal Reserve raises its target interest rate range by December 31, 2026. The outcome is No if it does not raise rates within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the announcement date for the effective date of the rate change.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 77%
- No 23%