John Brennan
Implied probability 25%−4
24-hour volume$17
Total volume$71k
Liquidity$71k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 25% |
| 17 Oct, 17:56 UTC | 25% |
| 17 Oct, 15:15 UTC | 30% |
| 17 Oct, 08:39 UTC | 29% |
| 17 Oct, 00:44 UTC | 27% |
| 16 Oct, 23:23 UTC | 25% |
| 16 Oct, 20:48 UTC | 24% |
| 16 Oct, 20:02 UTC | 23% |
| 16 Oct, 04:01 UTC | 24% |
| 15 Oct, 19:28 UTC | 27% |
| 15 Oct, 16:56 UTC | 25% |
| 15 Oct, 15:38 UTC | 23% |
| 15 Oct, 04:56 UTC | 22% |
| 15 Oct, 02:43 UTC | 24% |
| 15 Oct, 01:48 UTC | 24% |
| 15 Oct, 01:25 UTC | 25% |
| 14 Oct, 18:20 UTC | 22% |
| 14 Oct, 17:03 UTC | 24% |
| 14 Oct, 10:36 UTC | 20% |
| 14 Oct, 09:17 UTC | 26% |
| 13 Oct, 20:56 UTC | 27% |
| 12 Oct, 13:36 UTC | 23% |
| 12 Oct, 05:25 UTC | 21% |
| 11 Oct, 23:37 UTC | 24% |
| 11 Oct, 22:58 UTC | 20% |
| 11 Oct, 19:24 UTC | 27% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if John Brennan is formally charged with a federal crime between now and January 1, 2027. It resolves to No if no such charge occurs within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the linked news story for the resolution event, but only an official federal charge counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 25%
- No 75%