Exactly 1
Why it moved: −3 points at 13:56 UTC, after Bloomberg Markets: US Treasuries Stumble as Strong Labor Market Lifts Fed-Hike Bets — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 27% |
| 6 Nov, 14:56 UTC | 27% |
| 6 Nov, 13:56 UTC | 28% |
| 6 Nov, 12:37 UTC | 31% |
| 6 Nov, 09:51 UTC | 30% |
| 6 Nov, 03:15 UTC | 33% |
| 6 Nov, 02:36 UTC | 33% |
| 6 Nov, 02:14 UTC | 32% |
| 6 Nov, 00:12 UTC | 31% |
| 5 Nov, 23:22 UTC | 30% |
| 5 Nov, 20:20 UTC | 31% |
| 5 Nov, 16:51 UTC | 25% |
| 5 Nov, 15:41 UTC | 23% |
| 5 Nov, 15:14 UTC | 19% |
| 2 Nov, 02:30 UTC | 28% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if there is exactly one change in interest rates before 2027. It resolves to No if there are zero or more than one rate changes during that period. Readers often mistake the deadline for the end of 2026 instead of any time before 2027.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 27%
- No 73%