Above 510 thousand
The market favoured No at 80% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 1%
24-hour volume$3k
Total volume$14k
Liquidity$14k
Resolved29 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 2 Oct, 15:37 UTC | 1% |
| 2 Oct, 14:42 UTC | 4% |
| 30 Sept, 19:32 UTC | 20% |
| 30 Sept, 13:57 UTC | 15% |
| 30 Sept, 02:36 UTC | 14% |
| 30 Sept, 02:21 UTC | 16% |
| 30 Sept, 01:30 UTC | 13% |
| 27 Sept, 16:30 UTC | 20% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Ford Motor Company reports US sales volume above 510,000 vehicles for the third quarter of 2026. It resolves to No if that reported figure is 510,000 or lower. Readers often mistake the linked news headline about Hyundai as the deciding factor, but only Ford's official Q3 2026 sales data counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%