Iran war and foreign policy
Implied probability 1%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$14k
Liquidity$14k
Resolves6 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 3 Nov, 22:34 UTC | 1% |
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if voters identify the Iran war and foreign policy as their top priority in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll. It resolves to No if that specific issue does not rank first in those results. Readers often mistake this for a prediction of actual military action or political outcomes rather than voter priorities.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%