South Sudan
Implied probability 38%
24-hour volume$155
Total volume$37k
Liquidity$37k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 38% |
| 28 Oct, 03:29 UTC | 38% |
| 28 Oct, 01:42 UTC | 39% |
| 27 Oct, 23:45 UTC | 40% |
| 27 Oct, 21:40 UTC | 39% |
| 27 Oct, 14:21 UTC | 38% |
| 26 Oct, 01:19 UTC | 39% |
| 26 Oct, 00:54 UTC | 40% |
| 25 Oct, 03:44 UTC | 41% |
| 25 Oct, 02:07 UTC | 42% |
| 25 Oct, 00:14 UTC | 40% |
| 24 Oct, 08:23 UTC | 39% |
| 24 Oct, 06:58 UTC | 43% |
| 23 Oct, 22:28 UTC | 42% |
| 23 Oct, 19:27 UTC | 38% |
| 23 Oct, 13:37 UTC | 43% |
| 23 Oct, 09:07 UTC | 44% |
| 22 Oct, 16:47 UTC | 43% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if an official report confirms a human Ebola case in South Sudan between now and January 1, 2027. The outcome is No if no such confirmed case is reported by that deadline. Readers often mistake the date of the linked news story for the start of the reporting period, but only cases officially reported after the market's issuance date count.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 38%
- No 62%