Nigeria
The market favoured No at 90% a day out, but Yes won. How often it's right
Final probability 99%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$14k
Liquidity$14k
Resolved21 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 20 Oct, 20:31 UTC | 99% |
| 20 Oct, 19:41 UTC | 98% |
| 20 Oct, 18:24 UTC | 96% |
| 20 Oct, 17:31 UTC | 99% |
| 20 Oct, 17:24 UTC | 17% |
What counts
The outcome is Yes if an official report confirms a human case of Ebola in Nigeria between now and January 1, 2027. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake the start date for the deadline or confuse unofficial rumors with official reports.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%