Starlink
The market favoured Yes at 94% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Why it moved: +3 points at 14:47 UTC, after The Hill: Democrats call for investigation into Musk over reported Starlink slowdown order — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 21 Oct, 14:47 UTC | 99% |
| 21 Oct, 12:21 UTC | 96% |
| 21 Oct, 05:27 UTC | 97% |
| 21 Oct, 04:59 UTC | 96% |
| 21 Oct, 03:43 UTC | 95% |
| 21 Oct, 02:34 UTC | 94% |
| 20 Oct, 20:17 UTC | 97% |
| 20 Oct, 19:41 UTC | 95% |
| 20 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 94% |
| 19 Oct, 00:37 UTC | 95% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if a United Airlines representative mentions Starlink during the company's upcoming earnings call or Q&A session. It resolves to No if this specific mention does not occur within that event. Readers often mistake the source of truth, assuming any news report about Starlink counts instead of requiring a direct statement from United Airlines.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%