Oil
The market favoured Yes at 84% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 99%
24-hour volume$2k
Total volume$12k
Liquidity$12k
Resolved31 Mar 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 21 Oct, 14:55 UTC | 80% |
| 21 Oct, 14:23 UTC | 74% |
| 21 Oct, 13:12 UTC | 73% |
| 21 Oct, 11:31 UTC | 81% |
| 21 Oct, 08:44 UTC | 83% |
| 21 Oct, 07:50 UTC | 84% |
| 21 Oct, 07:05 UTC | 83% |
| 21 Oct, 06:58 UTC | 81% |
| 20 Oct, 20:58 UTC | 83% |
| 20 Oct, 20:10 UTC | 77% |
| 18 Oct, 21:34 UTC | 84% |
| 18 Oct, 03:23 UTC | 82% |
What counts
The outcome is Yes if a United Airlines representative mentions oil during the upcoming earnings call or Q&A session. The outcome is No if they do not mention it in that specific event. Readers often mistake any general discussion of fuel costs for this resolution, but only explicit mentions by company representatives on the call count.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%