Trading
The market favoured Yes at 94% a day out, but No won. How often it's right
Why it moved: −66 points at 13:25 UTC, after Quartz: Citigroup posted its best bond-trading quarter in a decade, beating profit estimates — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 5% |
| 13 Oct, 14:42 UTC | 5% |
| 13 Oct, 14:13 UTC | 6% |
| 13 Oct, 13:57 UTC | 4% |
| 13 Oct, 13:25 UTC | 28% |
| 13 Oct, 12:51 UTC | 95% |
| 13 Oct, 10:58 UTC | 94% |
| 13 Oct, 03:41 UTC | 95% |
| 13 Oct, 01:08 UTC | 94% |
| 12 Oct, 19:56 UTC | 91% |
| 7 Oct, 00:35 UTC | 94% |
What counts
The outcome is Yes if any JPMorgan Chase representative mentions "Trading" during the upcoming earnings call, including the question-and-answer session. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistakenly believe that references to trading in other contexts or by non-JPMorgan personnel count toward resolution.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 5%
- No 95%