Weather
The market favoured Yes at 52% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 99%
24-hour volume$4k
Total volume$5k
Liquidity$5k
Resolved23 Oct 2026
Why it moved: +42 points at 21:02 UTC, after Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: Rising fuel costs slashed Delta’s profit outlook despite strong demand — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 9 Oct, 21:02 UTC | 99% |
| 8 Oct, 14:20 UTC | 57% |
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%