Tariff
The market favoured No at 89% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 8%
24-hour volume$2k
Total volume$9k
Liquidity$9k
Resolved31 Dec 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 8% |
| 29 Sept, 15:16 UTC | 10% |
| 29 Sept, 14:53 UTC | 15% |
| 28 Sept, 14:21 UTC | 11% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if a Carnival Corporation representative mentions tariffs during the upcoming earnings call or its question-and-answer session. The outcome is No if no one uses that word in those specific segments. Readers often mistake the source of truth, assuming any general news report counts instead of only the official company representatives on the call.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 8%
- No 92%