Matt Fitzpatrick
The market favoured Yes at 98% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 70%
24-hour volume$433
Total volume$3k
Liquidity$3k
Resolved25 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 70% |
| 27 Sept, 20:15 UTC | 70% |
| 27 Sept, 19:59 UTC | 75% |
| 27 Sept, 17:13 UTC | 99% |
| 26 Sept, 16:06 UTC | 94% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Matt Fitzpatrick finishes in the top five players at the 2026 FedEx Open de France. It resolves to No if he does not finish in that range. Readers often mistake this rule for requiring a win, but ties count toward the top five.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 70%
- No 30%