Yes
Implied probability 1%
24-hour volume$334
Total volume$183k
Liquidity$183k
Resolves3 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 2 Nov, 09:52 UTC | 1% |
| 2 Nov, 02:22 UTC | 2% |
| 1 Nov, 19:45 UTC | 1% |
| 1 Nov, 18:18 UTC | 5% |
| 31 Oct, 13:38 UTC | 1% |
| 31 Oct, 01:32 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Oct, 18:51 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Oct, 14:07 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Oct, 05:00 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Oct, 02:48 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Oct, 15:45 UTC | 1% |
| 28 Oct, 03:50 UTC | 2% |
| 27 Oct, 12:08 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Oct, 01:32 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Oct, 00:10 UTC | 2% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the United States imposes a ban on diesel exports that goes into effect between now and November 3, 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the news headline for the resolution, but only an actual enacted ban counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%