Before 2027
Why it moved: +6 points at 00:16 UTC, after Bloomberg Markets: Latest Oil Market News and Analysis for Nov. 5 — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 8% |
| 5 Nov, 00:16 UTC | 7% |
| 4 Nov, 00:43 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Nov, 19:06 UTC | 5% |
| 3 Nov, 10:45 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Nov, 08:59 UTC | 4% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if the United States enforces a ban on crude oil exports that takes effect between now and January 1, 2027. The outcome is No if no such ban goes into effect within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the news headline for the final rule, but only an actual enacted ban counts, not just proposed legislation or public statements.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 8%
- No 92%