Nicaragua
The market favoured No at 82% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 1%
24-hour volume$871k
Total volume$872k
Liquidity$872k
Resolved7 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 5 Oct, 03:45 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Oct, 03:26 UTC | 24% |
| 5 Oct, 02:40 UTC | 28% |
| 5 Oct, 02:27 UTC | 27% |
| 5 Oct, 01:48 UTC | 22% |
| 5 Oct, 01:29 UTC | 22% |
| 4 Oct, 23:45 UTC | 21% |
| 4 Oct, 23:25 UTC | 19% |
| 3 Oct, 00:59 UTC | 74% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Nicaragua wins its soccer match against the Dominican Republic within the standard 90 minutes of play, including stoppage time. The outcome does not depend on extra time or penalty shootouts. Readers often mistakenly believe that a draw or a win in extra time counts toward the Yes outcome.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%