Netflix
The market favoured Yes at 93% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 98%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$11k
Liquidity$11k
Resolved17 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 98% |
| 16 Oct, 20:34 UTC | 98% |
| 16 Oct, 16:39 UTC | 91% |
| 15 Oct, 14:50 UTC | 93% |
| 15 Oct, 13:45 UTC | 95% |
| 14 Oct, 18:05 UTC | 91% |
| 14 Oct, 14:03 UTC | 99% |
| 14 Oct, 13:19 UTC | 97% |
| 12 Oct, 04:48 UTC | 75% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Netflix announces, implements, or acknowledges a layoff between now and January 1, 2027. The outcome depends on an official action by Netflix, not rumors or third-party reports. Readers often mistake the deadline as the date of the news story rather than the end of the specified period.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 98%
- No 2%