Out before Nov 15, 2026
Implied probability 1%−27
24-hour volume$2k
Total volume$8k
Liquidity$8k
Resolves15 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 20 Oct, 11:10 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Oct, 10:35 UTC | 4% |
| 20 Oct, 06:36 UTC | 21% |
| 20 Oct, 06:13 UTC | 1% |
| 19 Oct, 04:56 UTC | 20% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the New York Yankees manager leaves or announces their departure before November 15, 2026. It resolves to No if this does not happen by that date. Readers often mistake the linked story about Aaron Boone for a confirmation of his departure, but the headline only discusses his return, not an exit.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%