Dan Wilson
The market favoured Yes at 99% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 98%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$2k
Liquidity$2k
Resolved29 Sept 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 98% |
| 28 Sept, 19:18 UTC | 98% |
| 27 Sept, 21:50 UTC | 99% |
| 26 Sept, 20:56 UTC | 83% |
What counts
The outcome is Yes if the Seattle Mariners' manager leaves or announces their departure before December 1, 2026. The outcome is No if this does not happen by that date. Readers often mistake the linked story about Dan Wilson for the actual event, but the market depends solely on the manager's status, not Dan Wilson's.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 98%
- No 2%