Kylian Mbappe leaves before Jan 1, 2027
Implied probability 1%
24-hour volume$329
Total volume$7k
Liquidity$7k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Why it moved: −4 points at 15:59 UTC, after SI Feed: Televisión china no emite los primeros partidos de LaLiga tras polémica con Mbappé — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 31 Oct, 15:59 UTC | 1% |
| 31 Oct, 07:39 UTC | 5% |
| 30 Oct, 20:29 UTC | 1% |
| 26 Oct, 04:36 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Oct, 18:50 UTC | 7% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Kylian Mbappe transfers out of Real Madrid before January 1, 2027. It resolves to No if he remains at the club past that date. Readers often mistake his injury status or national team availability for a transfer.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%