In 2026
Implied probability 1%−5
24-hour volume$25
Total volume$10k
Liquidity$10k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 2 Oct, 17:59 UTC | 1% |
| 1 Oct, 15:35 UTC | 6% |
| 1 Oct, 03:19 UTC | 1% |
| 1 Oct, 01:41 UTC | 6% |
| 30 Sept, 21:47 UTC | 5% |
| 28 Sept, 19:18 UTC | 14% |
| 27 Sept, 03:39 UTC | 13% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if Anthropic's CEO departs before January 1, 2027. The outcome is No if the CEO remains in the role through that date. Readers often mistake the linked news story about urging UN leaders for the actual event of the CEO leaving.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%