Iran / Iranian
Implied probability 1%
24-hour volume$5k
Total volume$14k
Liquidity$14k
Resolves9 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 25 Sept, 04:35 UTC | 1% |
| 25 Sept, 03:17 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Sept, 02:53 UTC | 7% |
| 25 Sept, 02:13 UTC | 10% |
| 24 Sept, 23:14 UTC | 13% |
| 24 Sept, 22:45 UTC | 14% |
| 23 Sept, 11:51 UTC | 19% |
| 22 Sept, 10:32 UTC | 24% |
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Mark Carney explicitly uses the words "Iran" or "Iranian" while speaking at the United Nations General Assembly. It resolves to No if he does not use those specific terms in that setting. Readers often mistake any mention of Iran by other officials or in different locations as sufficient for a Yes resolution.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%