Before Jan 1, 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 35% |
| 2 Nov, 15:56 UTC | 35% |
| 2 Nov, 15:19 UTC | 30% |
| 2 Nov, 00:48 UTC | 29% |
| 1 Nov, 18:40 UTC | 38% |
| 1 Nov, 18:18 UTC | 31% |
| 31 Oct, 18:27 UTC | 34% |
| 27 Oct, 02:58 UTC | 14% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Canada and the European Union jointly announce that they have started or agreed to start formal negotiations for a new institutional status before January 1, 2027. It resolves to No if this joint announcement does not occur within that timeframe. Readers often mistake casual diplomatic meetings or unilateral statements for the required joint announcement of formal negotiations.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 35%
- No 65%