Before Oct 1, 2026
The market favoured No at 93% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 1%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$2k
Liquidity$2k
Resolved1 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 30 Sept, 15:08 UTC | 1% |
What counts
The outcome is Yes if Canada’s Prime Minister personally announces a new decision to reduce, remove, or suspend an existing tariff on U.S. goods between now and October 1, 2026. The outcome is No if this specific announcement does not occur within that timeframe. Readers often mistake general trade tensions or retaliatory measures for the required official tariff reduction.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%