Karen Bass and Xavier Becerra
The market favoured No at 98% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 1%
24-hour volume$16k
Total volume$79k
Liquidity$79k
Resolved3 Nov 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 5 Nov, 00:37 UTC | 1% |
| 5 Nov, 00:16 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 23:54 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 23:18 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 22:05 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 21:58 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 21:18 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 20:52 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 19:49 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 17:05 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 16:49 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 15:36 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 13:31 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 13:09 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Nov, 12:54 UTC | 92% |
| 4 Nov, 12:24 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Nov, 11:40 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 10:44 UTC | 12% |
| 4 Nov, 10:29 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 09:14 UTC | 9% |
| 4 Nov, 08:38 UTC | 5% |
| 4 Nov, 08:03 UTC | 6% |
| 4 Nov, 07:27 UTC | 11% |
| 4 Nov, 06:57 UTC | 8% |
| 4 Nov, 06:21 UTC | 7% |
| 4 Nov, 05:53 UTC | 9% |
| 4 Nov, 05:17 UTC | 9% |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | 11% |
| 4 Nov, 04:25 UTC | 75% |
| 3 Nov, 04:13 UTC | 62% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes only if both Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass and California Governor Xavier Becerra win their respective elections in November 2026. The outcome is No if either candidate fails to win. Readers often mistake the linked headline about Becerra’s past victory as sufficient, but Bass must also win her race for the market to resolve Yes.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%