Pete Hegseth
The market favoured Yes at 55% a day out, but No won. How often it's right
Final probability 1%
24-hour volume$18k
Total volume$144k
Liquidity$144k
Resolved20 Jan 2029
Why it moved: −45 points at 19:03 UTC, after Bloomberg.com: Hegseth Comes Under More Fire From Trump America First Ally — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 6 Nov, 19:03 UTC | 1% |
| 6 Nov, 18:56 UTC | 47% |
| 6 Nov, 18:19 UTC | 50% |
| 6 Nov, 17:57 UTC | 51% |
| 6 Nov, 17:20 UTC | 49% |
| 6 Nov, 16:20 UTC | 51% |
| 6 Nov, 15:05 UTC | 48% |
| 6 Nov, 14:56 UTC | 45% |
| 6 Nov, 14:11 UTC | 44% |
| 6 Nov, 13:56 UTC | 39% |
| 6 Nov, 12:58 UTC | 40% |
| 6 Nov, 12:08 UTC | 36% |
| 6 Nov, 11:45 UTC | 48% |
| 6 Nov, 11:12 UTC | 51% |
| 6 Nov, 09:16 UTC | 52% |
| 6 Nov, 08:55 UTC | 51% |
| 6 Nov, 07:38 UTC | 53% |
| 6 Nov, 06:21 UTC | 52% |
| 6 Nov, 05:38 UTC | 51% |
| 6 Nov, 05:03 UTC | 50% |
| 6 Nov, 04:34 UTC | 52% |
| 6 Nov, 04:27 UTC | 50% |
| 6 Nov, 03:23 UTC | 52% |
| 6 Nov, 02:44 UTC | 51% |
| 6 Nov, 02:29 UTC | 51% |
| 6 Nov, 01:45 UTC | 51% |
| 6 Nov, 01:24 UTC | 50% |
| 6 Nov, 00:12 UTC | 50% |
| 5 Nov, 23:51 UTC | 52% |
| 5 Nov, 23:22 UTC | 50% |
| 5 Nov, 22:54 UTC | 51% |
| 5 Nov, 22:04 UTC | 50% |
| 5 Nov, 21:49 UTC | 51% |
| 5 Nov, 21:26 UTC | 55% |
| 5 Nov, 20:35 UTC | 54% |
| 5 Nov, 20:27 UTC | 54% |
| 5 Nov, 19:57 UTC | 54% |
| 5 Nov, 19:29 UTC | 56% |
| 5 Nov, 18:50 UTC | 56% |
| 5 Nov, 18:28 UTC | 48% |
| 5 Nov, 17:58 UTC | 47% |
| 5 Nov, 17:28 UTC | 45% |
| 5 Nov, 16:58 UTC | 45% |
| 5 Nov, 16:21 UTC | 52% |
| 5 Nov, 15:57 UTC | 54% |
| 5 Nov, 15:15 UTC | 56% |
| 5 Nov, 14:56 UTC | 64% |
| 5 Nov, 14:16 UTC | 65% |
| 5 Nov, 13:45 UTC | 69% |
| 5 Nov, 12:29 UTC | 69% |
| 5 Nov, 11:56 UTC | 66% |
| 5 Nov, 10:39 UTC | 67% |
| 5 Nov, 08:14 UTC | 71% |
| 5 Nov, 07:52 UTC | 69% |
| 5 Nov, 07:02 UTC | 67% |
| 5 Nov, 06:55 UTC | 69% |
| 5 Nov, 06:11 UTC | 64% |
| 5 Nov, 05:42 UTC | 65% |
| 5 Nov, 05:09 UTC | 60% |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | 60% |
| 5 Nov, 04:26 UTC | 62% |
| 5 Nov, 03:58 UTC | 59% |
| 5 Nov, 03:08 UTC | 57% |
| 5 Nov, 02:39 UTC | 56% |
| 5 Nov, 02:10 UTC | 55% |
| 5 Nov, 01:28 UTC | 51% |
| 5 Nov, 00:59 UTC | 50% |
| 5 Nov, 00:16 UTC | 48% |
| 4 Nov, 23:54 UTC | 52% |
| 4 Nov, 23:25 UTC | 54% |
| 4 Nov, 22:49 UTC | 53% |
| 4 Nov, 22:20 UTC | 50% |
| 4 Nov, 21:58 UTC | 39% |
| 4 Nov, 21:26 UTC | 45% |
| 4 Nov, 20:52 UTC | 44% |
| 4 Nov, 20:23 UTC | 51% |
| 4 Nov, 19:42 UTC | 57% |
| 4 Nov, 19:19 UTC | 63% |
| 4 Nov, 18:57 UTC | 63% |
| 4 Nov, 18:27 UTC | 62% |
| 4 Nov, 17:27 UTC | 56% |
| 4 Nov, 16:57 UTC | 43% |
| 4 Nov, 15:36 UTC | 43% |
| 4 Nov, 14:44 UTC | 41% |
| 4 Nov, 14:01 UTC | 41% |
| 4 Nov, 13:46 UTC | 37% |
| 4 Nov, 13:24 UTC | 41% |
| 4 Nov, 12:47 UTC | 42% |
| 4 Nov, 11:54 UTC | 41% |
| 4 Nov, 08:24 UTC | 42% |
| 4 Nov, 07:56 UTC | 37% |
| 4 Nov, 06:00 UTC | 42% |
| 4 Nov, 05:39 UTC | 41% |
| 4 Nov, 04:10 UTC | 42% |
| 4 Nov, 03:48 UTC | 38% |
| 4 Nov, 02:41 UTC | 37% |
| 4 Nov, 02:26 UTC | 40% |
| 4 Nov, 01:42 UTC | 34% |
| 4 Nov, 01:13 UTC | 40% |
| 4 Nov, 00:58 UTC | 35% |
| 4 Nov, 00:07 UTC | 36% |
| 3 Nov, 23:10 UTC | 40% |
| 3 Nov, 22:19 UTC | 37% |
| 3 Nov, 20:56 UTC | 39% |
| 3 Nov, 19:35 UTC | 40% |
| 3 Nov, 18:44 UTC | 36% |
| 3 Nov, 15:36 UTC | 41% |
| 3 Nov, 14:18 UTC | 40% |
| 3 Nov, 13:04 UTC | 38% |
| 3 Nov, 04:57 UTC | 40% |
| 3 Nov, 03:33 UTC | 37% |
| 3 Nov, 01:46 UTC | 40% |
| 3 Nov, 01:24 UTC | 38% |
| 3 Nov, 00:26 UTC | 41% |
| 2 Nov, 23:01 UTC | 38% |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | 41% |
| 2 Nov, 21:26 UTC | 37% |
| 2 Nov, 20:16 UTC | 40% |
| 2 Nov, 19:54 UTC | 41% |
| 2 Nov, 17:34 UTC | 42% |
| 2 Nov, 17:26 UTC | 41% |
| 2 Nov, 13:04 UTC | 43% |
| 2 Nov, 11:29 UTC | 40% |
| 2 Nov, 05:39 UTC | 42% |
| 2 Nov, 02:37 UTC | 43% |
| 2 Nov, 02:08 UTC | 42% |
| 1 Nov, 23:00 UTC | 43% |
| 1 Nov, 22:17 UTC | 42% |
| 1 Nov, 21:41 UTC | 38% |
| 1 Nov, 14:16 UTC | 42% |
| 1 Nov, 08:12 UTC | 41% |
| 1 Nov, 06:43 UTC | 40% |
| 1 Nov, 03:04 UTC | 41% |
| 1 Nov, 02:50 UTC | 38% |
| 1 Nov, 01:31 UTC | 41% |
| 1 Nov, 00:28 UTC | 39% |
| 31 Oct, 23:17 UTC | 35% |
| 31 Oct, 22:43 UTC | 39% |
| 31 Oct, 21:46 UTC | 37% |
| 31 Oct, 19:59 UTC | 40% |
| 31 Oct, 19:24 UTC | 41% |
| 31 Oct, 18:55 UTC | 37% |
| 31 Oct, 17:49 UTC | 41% |
| 31 Oct, 16:29 UTC | 37% |
| 31 Oct, 15:44 UTC | 39% |
| 31 Oct, 14:53 UTC | 37% |
| 31 Oct, 14:24 UTC | 38% |
| 31 Oct, 12:25 UTC | 34% |
| 31 Oct, 09:31 UTC | 41% |
| 31 Oct, 06:36 UTC | 38% |
| 31 Oct, 03:24 UTC | 42% |
| 31 Oct, 02:12 UTC | 41% |
| 31 Oct, 01:18 UTC | 40% |
What counts
The outcome is Yes if Pete Hegseth becomes the first member of Donald Trump's Cabinet to leave or announce his departure after May 22, 2026. The outcome is No if he remains in office or if another cabinet member leaves first. Readers often mistake the date of the linked news story for the deadline, but only departures occurring after May 22, 2026 count.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%